Objectives: Using multivariate machine-learning pattern classifiers created by combining the two MEG latency measures, we evaluate whether this combination can distinguish between ASD/LI+, ASD/LI- and TD populations better than univariate classifiers, by learning patterns of disease variability, incorporating age effects and generating an abnormality score that can aid diagnosis of an unseen subject.
Methods: We measured MMF and M100 latencies in the superior temporal gyrus in 41 children with ASD (13 LI+, 28 LI-, defined according to clinical/neuropsychological assessment) and 21 TD controls using MEG. In our data (as in several other studies: Gage et al., 2003b; Oram Cardy et al., 2008) M100 correlated significantly with age (R=-.5129, p=2.0x10-5), with no significant difference in this correlation between groups. Hence, M100 measurements were age-corrected by linear regression. Using MMF and age-corrected M100 as input features, we created a non-linear two-way support vector machine (SVM) classifier of ASD and TD populations and a three-way classifier between the ASD/LI+, ASD/LI- and TD groups, cross-validated with a leave-one-out paradigm. For each classifier, we obtained an average classification accuracy by testing on each left out subject using the constructed classifier. For the three-way classifiers, the sensitivity for LI+ was recorded as the percentage of LI+ individuals that were correctly classified.
Results: The two-way ASD-TD classifier using MMF and M100 yielded a cross-validated classification accuracy of 83.87% (52/62) with sensitivity of 87.8% (36/41) and specificity of 71.4% (15/21) compared to univariate MMF classifier (accuracy 80.65% (50/62); sensitivity 90.24% (37/41); specificity 61.9% (13/21)) and M100 classifier (accuracy 75.81% (47/62); sensitivity of 95.12% (39/41); specificity 38.1% (8/21)). The three-way multivariate classifier yielded a cross-validated accuracy of 66.13% (41/62), significantly higher than the chance rate of 33% (p<0.001). The sensitivity towards LI+ was 38.46% (5/13). The classifier using only M100 yielded an overall accuracy of 59.68% (37/62), but sensitivity towards LI+ was inferior (7.69%, 1/13; p=0.06), with similar values for a 3-way univariate MMF classifier.
Conclusions: This work presents multivariate MEG-based classifiers that provide better group separation between ASD and TD populations compared to univariate M100 and MMF classifiers. Further, the three-way multivariate classifiers (despite small sample sizes) were able to better elucidate the heterogeneity of ASD, distinguishing degrees of LI.
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